Thursday, March 10, 2011

An Odd Statistical Quirk and a Huge Advantage for the Thunder

One way to measure the effectiveness of a team's ability to draw fouls and successfully shoot free throws is to look at their ratio of free throws made to field goal attempts (FT/FGA).  By using FG attempts in the denominator, this ratio largely negates the impact of pace. This statistic also takes into account accuracy of each team's free throw shooters, by counting free throws instead of free throw attempts.

Through the NBA games played March 8, the league average for this ratio was 0.231.  The average number of free throws made was 1188, the average number of field goal attempts was 5144, and the resulting quotient gives the number listed above.

The interesting quirk lies in comparing the league average to each of the NBA's 30 teams.  When each team is compared to this 0.231 mark, only nine teams are above the league average.  That's right -- there are 21 teams performing below the league average in this index.  How can that happen? It turns out that way because there are a few squads that sit significantly higher than even the above-average teams.  Here are the nine teams (note the outliers pulling up the average on the high end):

2010-2011 Free Throw / Field Goal Attempt Ratio (FT/FGA) 

OKC -- 0.307
DEN -- 0.292
MIA -- 0.277
UTA -- 0.249
CHA -- 0.245
NYK -- 0.243
HOU -- 0.240
LAC -- 0.239
SAS  -- 0.233
There are three teams -- the Thunder, the Nuggets, and the Heat -- shooting a significantly higher proportion of free throws than their counterparts in the league.  (By comparison, the bottom spot is held by Golden State with a dismal 0.186.)

In fact, the Oklahoma City number is grand on a historic level (as Zach Lowe pointed out earlier this season).  In addition to being accurate -- they are within a percent of the all-time free-throw percentage mark (held by the '89-90 Celtics) -- they are also getting the line with great frequency.  The Thunder rank second in the league in free throw attempts behind only Denver.  This combination of accuracy and frequency makes them one of the greatest free throw shooting teams ever.

Since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976, only eight teams have finished the season with a higher FT/FGA ratio than Oklahoma City this year.


The Thunder are the league's best free throw producing team in over a decade.  The few teams/seasons above them include three Utah seasons with Karl Malone and two Sixer seasons with Barkley, plus a Blazer team from the Drexler/Vandeweghe era.  It's easy to see where those teams got their attempts.  The other two teams above the Thunder had league-leading pace:  Don Nelson's '89-90 "Run-TMC" Warriors and Doug Moe's '81-82 Nuggets, who scored 126.5 points per game and allowed 126 on the other end.

The Thunder have carved their own unique niche in this list.  Without pace or a bruising forward, they have gotten to this spot with incredible accuracy and a point guard, Russell Westbrook, who draws an inordinate number of charity shots.  In raising their ability to score points through free throws (last year's team had a ratio of 0.268), the Thunder will make Oklahoma City a tough place to win games in the playoffs.

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