Anaheim Amigos: 2010

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

KG Injures Calf - Before Game?

Could this scene from earlier today be the moment when KG initially hurt his calf?

Was the Pistons game just a re-aggravation of the injury? Shaq, you're a dope sometimes. First, every official is the league is going to see this video. And now you've hurt the newly restored-to-factory-condition KG. (Or not. Who knows? In general, though, people's bodies generally don't do well when shoulder-collared by 380 lb. crybabies. Next time, just ham it up for the camera by yourself.)

For the second time this season, Kevin learned an important lesson: NOTHING good comes out of Detroit.

A Few Thoughts on Celtics-Pacers

Celtics fans can't be stoked that Allen and Pierce played 39 and 36 minutes, respectively, in a late December game on the first night of a back-to-back. Nate Robinson was largely ineffective all night, and when Nate bumped heads with Mike Dunleavy in the third quarter and left to get his forehead taped up, his forced absence left Boston really shorthanded at guard.

With Rondo injured, Nate struggling and Pierce getting a few minutes of rest, the job of directing the team on offense was up for grabs at the end of the first quarter. Doc subbed in Jermaine O'Neal at the 2:47 mark and for the remainder of the frame, the Celtics went with a lineup of Avery Bradley, Ray Allen, Marquis Daniels, Glen Davis, and Jermaine. Since the rookie Bradley has struggled to adjust to playing point guard this season, Ray Allen brought up the ball and played the point. It was a disaster. Allen gave up two steals that the Pacers turned into layups and the Celtics only scored two points in those three minutes.

The Celtics went back to a similar lineup in order to give (most of) the starters a rest to begin the fourth quarter. Since Nate was out with his head bump, Rivers put in the same lineup, but with Von Wafer replacing Bradley. The more important change: Marquis Daniels took over the point duties. He played the "low-post point guard" spot, backing down his defenders and setting up his teammates in the style of a Mark Jackson or a young Chauncey Billups. This time, the subs played phenomenally. The fivesome of Wafer-Allen-Daniels-Davis-Jermaine O'Neal turned a 67-66 deficit into a 77-67 lead with an 11-0 run. Allen and Daniels, in more comfortable roles, combined for 5 points and 3 assists during the quick scoring outburst. The Celtics half-court defense was stifling and got stronger as the night went on, but if they had not tweaked their way into these offensive improvements, the Pacers would have been able to score much more effectively by pushing the tempo, as they had done to start the game.

The Pacers front line of Danny Granger, Josh McRoberts, and Roy Hibbert shot a combined 10-33 from the floor. Hibbert, in particular, is slumping. In the last eight games, he has shot 31.7% from the floor (34 for 107).

A few other scattered impressions:

My second thought when Rashard Lewis was traded to the Wizards was that he should not be taking the floor at the same time as Blatche. (The first thought was, "I never thought I would live to see the day when they could dump Arenas' contract!") Andray is too inactive on D; Rashard is sloth-like on offense. Both lack the muscle to have a sustained impact in the paint. Keeping track on a game-by-game basis, we have

Home vs.CHI: Both players used at the 4-spot. Blatche and Lewis subbed for each other during game frequently. However, they were occasionally used together: 11 minutes, +/- rating of -8.
Road @ SAS: Blatche suspended for fighting at club with Javale McGee. Outstanding.
Road @ HOU: Lewis played a season-high 43 minutes, including a starting role at the 3-spot. They played over 33 minutes together with a +/- rating of -13 when they were on the court together, including an epic fourth quarter collapse.

Charlotte played Detroit a couple of nights ago. The Bobcats won the game, not surprisingly, given that they played at home with a new coach, Paul Silas. However, they won despite turning the ball over 23 times, including a horrific 15 combined from Stephen Jackson and Ty Thomas. Point guards D.J. Augustin and Shaun Livingston committed zero of the 23 turnovers in their cumulative 48 minutes of floor time.

Sunday, December 26, 2010

NBA Tweeters: Comprehensive List of NBA Players Who Tweet

Here's the best list of NBA Player Twitter accounts that I could put together. If you like it, tweet the link. If you see one I missed, let me know in the comments and I'll add it. -KLC

Atlanta Hawks

Golden State Warriors

Minnesota Timberwolves

New Jersey Nets

New Orleans Hornets

New York Knicks

Oklahoma City Thunder

Orlando Magic

Philadelphia 76ers

Phoenix Suns

Portland Trail Blazers

** D-Leaguer
*** Not officially verified by Twitter
**** Coach, not player, but he's a bada$s for just having an account and actually posting relevant comments about his feelings on the team.

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Picking a Coach for the Bobcats & NBA Stars of the 90's

Adrian Wojnarowski made the following tweet today, shortly after it became clear that Larry Brown was stepping down as the coach of the Charlotte Bobcats:

Wow! Would Michael Jordan seriously consider putting Patrick Ewing at the helm of the Bobcats?

Consider that Patrick Ewing's primary responsibility is to teach Dwight Howard how to play in the low post. He has held this assistant coaching gig since 2007. This past summer, Ewing's pupil, Dwight Howard, showed up in Houston to get tutored by Hakeem Olajuwon. Below is a video detailing some of the time they spent together:

Why is it, then, that at the outset of the video, Dwight looks as if he has never been introduced to the fundamentals of low-post footwork? For years, Howard has limited his low-post game to dunks, tip-ins, and an occasional dribble move. This year, partly due to maturity and partly due to Olajuwon's tutelage having taken effect, Howard is averaging career-high numbers in field goals, field goals attempted and points. Prior to this season, Howard had languished in creating shots in the half-court offense. Now, when the ball comes to him in the low post, he has enough variety in his pivot moves to create a decent shot attempt -- a direct result of his time with Hakeem. Olajuwon was a better center than Ewing back in the 90's. Now, as the result of a single contact and a week of tutoring, Hakeem is a better coach than Pat, too.

Take it back to Charlotte. If Patrick Ewing cannot succeed in his main responsibility -- the one area of expertise that he brought to the job -- then can we reasonably expect him to succeed as a head coach in the NBA, with all manner of extra duties and nuances that accompany such a job? Hiring Ewing would be a one-act summary of 'everything' Michael Jordan has accomplished as GM of Charlotte.

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Two interesting links:

Monday, December 20, 2010

Anatomy of a Travel

Before getting to the still shots to count Amar'e Stoudemire's steps in a late-game possession against the Celtics, watch the full video of this play (it's the first ten seconds or so of the video):

After the dunk, 19,763 fans erupt in unison to express their delight. Dan Shulman says, "Stoudemire. His play is speaking volumes again tonight." The referees watch unflinchingly -- they don't begin any motions to indicate that they might make a call. And I am sitting at home wondering how Stoudemire got away with a move that looked frightfully similar to a child playing hopscotch on the numbered blacktop of an elementary school. Keep in mind as you watch the full motion clip that their are no dribbles by Stoudemire in this move to the basket. He goes from top of the free-throw circle to a dunk without a single dribble.

You could also throw in that Nate Robinson does a poor job defending the pick-and-roll, playing behind the initial screen, and then stepping up to take Felton. Poor Garnett has already stepped in to help with Felton, and he now has no chance to get back to Stoudemire.

From the NBA's rules for traveling:

A player who receives the ball while he is progressing must release the ball to start his dribble before his second step. The first step occurs when a foot, or both feet, touch the floor after gaining control of the ball. The second step occurs after the first step when the other foot touches the floor, or both feet touch the floor simultaneously.

A player who lands with one foot first may only pivot using that foot. A progressing player who jumps off one foot on the first step may land with both feet simultaneously for the second step. In this situation, the player may not pivot with either foot and if one or both feet leave the floor the ball must be released before either returns to the floor.

Picture 1 (Receiving the pass - above foul line): Amar'e gathers the ball. The breakdown here is in split-second fragments, so you might argue that he doesn't quite have it gathered in yet. Both feet are on the floor.

Picture 2 (Step One - a few inches short of the foul line): Since the Stoudemire's left hand was the one bringing the ball to his body, Amar'e clearly now has possession, since his right hand has closed on it at this point. His right foot is down, but his left foot has come up. Since "the first step occurs when a foot, or both feet, touch the floor after gaining control of the ball", we need to call the placement of his right foot as 'step one'.

Picture 3 (Both feet elevated - at the foul line)

From the previous position, where Amar'e had the ball in his grasp with right foot planted, he does a little left-foot-over-right motion in which both feet are momentarily elevated.

Picture 4 (Step Two - just inside foul line)

Here we have Amar'e setting down his left foot on or just barely inside the foul line. This step is his second. Remember, there are no hidden dribbles between stills -- there are no dribbles whatsoever during the entirety of Stoudemire's possession of the ball.

Picture 5 (Step Three - to the dotted line)

Now we have Amar'e about to plant his right foot on the dotted line as he starts to plan his move between Glen Davis and Paul Pierce.

Picture 6 (Step Four - between the circles)

In preparation for takeoff, Stoudemire plants his left foot between the circles. While he will soon elevate from two feet, this move is not any type of jump-stop because he doesn't land on two feet beforehand.

Picture 7 - (Taking off for the dunk)

The best part of Amar'e's move (that possessive phrase looks like heck with two apostrophes) is that he masks the travel with an amazing feat of athleticism. While gliding at a rather rhythmic, but moderate pace, he takes off with his back foot on the dotted circle and throws down the dunk between two defenders. Davis and Pierce never create any real threat to stopping this play.

By my count, I see four steps in this move to the basket -- right foot/left foot/another right/another left. It seems reasonable to dispute the first right foot. Did he have possession when he touched that foot down? I think he did, which is why I was disheartened by the lack of attention given to this travel. But even if we discount that first step, there are three distinct steps with no jump stops here. At the very least, he goes left foot, right foot, left foot. Travel.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

Two Interesting Photos & The Nancy Parish Memorial Tunnel

Photo #1

The picture shown here is a screenshot of my TV of the Wizards game on December 14th. Andray Blatche was playing well (which is kind of a relative term for him -- evidently, he hadn't made five straight bad decisions that led to fast-breaks for the other team) and coming out of the commercial break, Wizards fans from all over the DMV were treated to a highlight clip of all the special things that Andray can do.

After showing a couple of his 21-foot contested jump shots, we get to this nice shot of Andray throwing down a ferocious dunk. Facial! Except for one thing -- in the futile attempt to put a portray Blatche in a kind light, we have to: 1) go back to last year, when he may have still had a pulse and 2) include a move where he obliterates Yi Jianlian, his current teammate. Way to go, Wizards! I'm sure you've made great fans out of the 25 million Chinese viewers tuning into the international broadcast of your game. Ugh.

Photo #2

(If you are under the age of 40, just skip the the next two paragraphs -- trust me, you will be bored to tears -- and jump down to take a peek at the bottom photo.)

Notice anyone familiar in the photo below. Ok, yes that is Danny Ainge handling the ball. If you are even more observant, maybe you also recognize the old New York uniforms, which may even lead you to spot Bill Cartwright sporting the goatee on the right-hand side. There, too, you may see Cedric Maxwell, a tangle of rubbery arms and legs shadowing #9 from New York from the back. Do you remember who #9 is? Don't peek down too far because if you get this one right on your own merit, you deserve to take three giant steps to the front of the classroom. Time's up!

It's the late Randy Smith, the longtime Buffalo Brave who was mentioned in this space a couple of weeks ago. At this point in his career, he had left Buffalo to join New York for a season, and was 750+ games into a consecutive games played streak that would stretch to 906 -- then an NBA record. I'd like to be able to tell you who that is behind Ainge, but I am not sure myself. Is it Michael Ray Richardson? If you know the answer, be sure to tell me in the comments.

Anyway enough with the players. There is actually someone else in the photo worth noting, if my suspicions are correct. In his Book of Basketball, Bill Simmons writes about the darkest period of Celtic basketball, the late 70's era, when Cowens was the only link back to the great teams and a rotating cast of castoffs sputtered through some pretty awful seasons:

Within two years we devolved into one of the league's most hapless teams, which wasn't necessarily a bad thing for the Simmons family: not only could Dad (barely) afford a second ticket by then, but thanks to a fleeing base of paying customers, they upgraded our seat location to midcourt, right alongside the Nancy Parish Memorial Tunnel (I'll explain later), where players coaches, and referees entered and exited the arena. My seat happened to be two rows in front of Dad's seat -- we couldn't get two together unless we moved away from the tunnel, which we didn't want to do -- but I could hop under the railing, stand in the tunnel and chat with him during time-outs Even better, a bizarre collection of injured players, old-timers and media personalities gathered in the tunnel and watched a quarter or two, leading to one of my favorite childhood memories: a washed-up Marvin "Bad News" Barnes standing eighteen inches away from me, milking some bogus injury, wearing a full-length mink coat and leaning against my railing. Every few minutes, after a good Celtics play, he'd nod at me with one of those "What it is, Tiny White Dude!" smiles on his face. And since I wasn't over my racial identity issues yet, I spend the entire time marveling at his coat and hoping he'd legally adopt me. Didn't happen.

Look back at the photo of the Garden. See the midcourt tunnel? See the kid who is alongside the tunnel and clinging to the railing, with the mustachioed dude sitting two rows behind him? (Simmons chronicles his father's career, including a picture of the bushy mustache in this piece.)

That has got to be a 12-year-old Bill Simmons based upon his description, right?

Saturday, December 18, 2010

Did Playing FIBA 2010 Steal Away NBA Productivity?

With the season at the one-quarter mark, it's time to answer the question, "Did playing internationally in the summer impact how those players performed this season?" With the NBA season currently stretching over months and months, it is natural to investigate to see if playing overseas during a short offseason had any effects. To gauge the effect of heavy legs, let's take a look at FG% for the players in the NBA who played the most minutes per game in the tournament. We use the NBA data for games played in the 2009-10 season, as well as in the 2010-11 season through December 17, 2010. For the selection of the initial pool of players, we use the players with the highest minutes per game in the FIBA tourney (top 100). This pool will further be narrowed by their NBA usage over the past two seasons.

Three NBA players from the US team were in the top-100 in minutes per game in last summer's FIBA tournament. The players were Kevin Durant, Chauncey Billups, and Derrick Rose. Here is a look at their FG shooting percentages:

There might be a potential trend here, but we need more data. Let's turn to players in the FIBA tourney from other countries. For purposes of investigating tired legs in the NBA, it seems reasonable to limit the study to players who participated in at least half of their team's NBA games, both last season and this season. Bench warmers and players who don't play due to injury won't be susceptible to the same types of fatigue. Players such as Hamed Haddadi, Carlos Delfino, and Paddy Mills get eliminated at this stage. The international players who were in the top-100 in minutes played per game at FIBA and who have played in at least half their team's NBA games in each of the last two seasons, along with their FG percentages for each of the past two seasons:

A quick look at the data shows that Diaw, Barbosa, and Marc Gasol improved their percentages; the other eleven players experienced a drop. If we list them from greatest drop to greatest improvement and graph, the resulting picture is:

If we look at the paired data for the two years from these 17 players, we can perform a hypothesis test on the differences. In other words, the test will indicate whether it is reasonable to assume that the FG% numbers for both seasons are the same or if they are somehow different. To get each difference, take the FG% from 09-10 and subtract the corresponding FG% for 10-11. Based upon the order of the subtraction, the results will be positive numbers, except for Diaw, Barbosa, and Gasol. A normal probability plot indicates that it is reasonable to assume that the data are normally distributed. If the paired t-test is applied to the data, the results are a test statistic of t = 3.497 from a distribution with 16 degrees of freedom and a p-value of p = 0.003409. With a p-value as small as the one given here, even at a 1% significance level, there is evidence to indicate that these FG% numbers for the two years are not the same. It is a virtual certainty. For the players that participated in FIFA, it is a safe bet to conclude that the FG% numbers are not the same (i.e., lower) this year when compared with last year.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

More Lineup Data -- The New York Knicks After 25 Games

The lineup data at 82games.com shows that after 25 games, the New York Knicks favor three 5-man lineups which have seen more court time than any others. All three of these lineups favor the four players who have started every game for the Knicks this season: Amar'e Stoudemire, Raymond Felton, Danilo Galinari, and Landry Fields. The other spot in the top-3 lineups are held by Timofey Mozgov, Ronny Turiaf, and Wilson Chandler -- the three players who have been used as the fifth starter.

Given that the Knicks were 3-6 with Mozgov as a starter, 5-1 with Turiaf, and 8-2 with Chandler (prior to the Celtics game), the table below probably isn't too much of a surprise.

While the Knicks had a nice record with Turiaf starting, the court production of the Felton-Fields-Gallinari-Stoudemire-Turiaf has been underwhelming. In fact, these five-man groupings with Mozgov and Turiaf in them have been equally bad, with both sets averaging about a two-point deficit for each 10 minutes they spent on the floor together. With Stoudemire at center and Chandler in the lineup, the Knicks have a more talented and cohesive lineup, one which outscores the opposition on average by over 3 points per 12-minute quarter. Rather than putting a traditional pivot player on the floor to match up with their opposition, the Knicks are forcing other teams to adapt to their D'Antoni small ball with positive results. Given that they won eight straight games with Chandler as a starter prior to their epic clash against Boston, you can expect to see much more of that grouping.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Celtic Lineups and Shaq (a.k.a. The Big Plus-Minus)

My earlier post today got me interested in knowing the performance of the Celtics using lineups that included Shaq compared to their performance using lineups that did not include him. 82games.com has data for the ten most commonly used lineups for the Celtics through the first 23 games. Go to 82games.com and see the data for yourself. There are two important trends to note here:

The Celtics most frequently used lineup is Shaq plus the Big Four (KG, Allen, Pierce, Rondo). It is far and away the most productive unit the C's employ. Not only is the best one the Celtics have, it is one of the best in the NBA. (Click here to a better view of the whole league.) Take out Shaq and put in Glen Davis? Yes, you can do that, but the overall performance drops off a steep cliff.
The Rondo-led lineups are better than the Robinson-led lineups. No surprise there. (See 82games.com: items #1-3 are Rondo and #4-6 are Robinson). However, the best combo of the Robinson lineups is Nate, Shaq, and the Big Three. And once again, it is not even close. Substitute Davis or Erden for Shaq at your peril.

I have to admit that while Shaq has performed well to the naked eye at times, these data on lineups still shocked the heck out of me. Keep in mind that O'Neal is shooting a ridiculous 68.7% from the field, too. He is probably not going to get enough field goals to qualify, but if he did, 68.7% would be the second-best FG rate of all-time.

The Celtics are doing a good job limiting his minutes, so he probably should not be an all-star, since he plays less than half of what the other stars in the NBA are playing. But when he plays, he most definitely impacts the Celtics in a positive way. Doc Rivers needs to do whatever it takes to ensure that he can coax this type of performance out of Shaq in the playoffs.

Defensive Rebounding and The Celtics' Frontcourt

In Game 7 of the 2010 NBA Finals, the Lakers snagged 23 offensive rebounds and the Celtics gathered just 40 defensive rebounds. (So for the game, the Celtics defensive rebounding percentage was a sucktaculous 40 / (40 + 23) = 63.5%) The painfully depleted frontcourt rotation for the Celtics -- Paul Pierce, Rasheed Wallace, Glen Davis, and a not-quite-healed Kevin Garnett -- could not hold Gasol (18 rebounds, 9 offensive), Kobe (15 rebounds, 4 offensive), and the rest of the Laker rebounders at bay. Coming into this season, rebounding had to be an issue for the Celtics, especially with Kendrick Perkins injured and Rasheed Wallace retired. In response to these needs, the Celtics acquired Shaquille and Jermaine O'Neal, but how would these players mesh into the overall rebounding success? Jermaine has been injured most of the season, so analysis on that front would be spotty at best, but Shaquille has amassed enough playing time to make it worthy of a quick look.

Below are the regular-season numbers for the Celtics over last season and the first 23 games of the present campaign:

Boston Team Defensive Rebounding Percentage (DREB%):

2009-10: 73.8%, 14th in NBA

2010-11: 76.9%, 4th in NBA

Note that the league average for both seasons is 73.7% -- Boston was essentially at league average last season and they have since improved to elite status. The primary reason: Kevin Garnett. It's hard to get through a broadcast of a Celtics' game without someone mentioning that "KG has his bounce back". The stats back it up, too, as Garnett has improved from a 24.8 DREB% to a 31.3 DREB%. The latter number, if he can maintain it, would be a career-high for KG, not bad considering that he led the league in this category from 2004 to 2007. Kevin Love (who is having a historic year as a rebounder) and Marcus Camby sit ahead of him this year, so he is not currently leading the NBA, but he has been a fantastic defensive rebounder nonetheless.

The secondary reason for the improved Celtic rebounding is Shaquille O'Neal. His DREB% for 2010-11 is 23.6, a level that would rank him 16th in the NBA, if he had played enough minutes to be eligible. Given that Shaquille has a career average for DREB% of 23.7, he is performing right at his normal career rate. In fact, Shaq has been a remarkably consistent rebounder over his career. Instead of showing a rise-and-fall from youth to MVP status to old-age, the career trend is much more level than one might expect. The pattern also applies to his offensive rebounding percentage (OREB%) and total rebounding percentage (TREB%).

Of course, Shaq's totals on a per-game basis are way down, because he is playing far fewer minutes at age 38. But if playing time is factored out, Shaq is rebounding at a rate comparable not only to his career average, but also to his MVP season back in 2000.

Does elite rebounding translate into overall success? A quick look at the top 2-player combinations on NBA.com shows that the Garnett-Shaq pairing has scored 631 points and allowed 491 points, for a +140 that ranks them as the 26th best two-man combo in the league. However, on a per-minute basis, the numbers are even better. The twosome has a +/- per minute average of 0.518, which would rank them second out of the top 50 overall +/- pairings. The two players are rebounding well, but they are complementing each other areas, most notably on offense, with Garnett passing well and spreading the floor with his jump-shooting ability and O'Neal providing a premium low-post offensive threat.

Finally, how does Shaq compare to Kendrick Perkins, who is due to return from an injury-related absence later this season, most likely as O'Neal's replacement? Too see the comparison, take the previous graph, tailor it to a shorter time frame, and indicate Perkins' rates with a dotted line.

With the exception of 2004 and 2008, O'Neal and Perkins have performed at approximately similar rates. Given their injuries and current health status, choosing the better rebounder later this season is most likely going to be a matter of picking the healthier player. O'Neal appears to be functioning as an equal replacement to Perkins on the glass, but given that Shaq has had to share the rebounds with an elite Garnett, Shaq may be outdoing Perkins by just a bit.

Friday, December 10, 2010

Warrior Double Whammy


Click here for the larger image.

Golden State, we're looking at you. We're not looking at you because that new logo looks so clean on the bright hardwood behind you. We're not looking at you because you're sporting the freshest new uniform in the Association. (No small feat: the Jazz and Sixers have fine-looking fresh unis, too, but you have that Bay Bridge logo incorporated into the side trim on your shorts. Perfection.)

Nope, we're looking at you for other reasons -- other soft reasons. The FT/FGA ratio is a statistic that measures how often a team is getting to the line. Take the total foul attempts, divide by the total number of field goals and you have your stat. Big number = you're getting to the line a lot. Low numbers indicate just the opposite.

On offense, Golden State is last in the league in FT/FGA ratio at 0.168. By contrast, Oklahoma City is leading the league with a ratio (0.332) that indicates they are getting to the charity stripe at a rate which is almost double what the Warriors produce. Not only are the Warriors last, but they are last by quite a bit. Memphis is in the penultimate spot at 0.210 -- meaning that the Warriors trail their nearest rival by 25%. One big culprit is Andris Biedrins, who has only taken 14 free throws for the year. To make matters worse, he's only made 4 of those 14.

Offensive FT/FGA

So the Warriors don't get to the line much. There's a second part that makes it much, much worse. If we look at FT/FGA from the defensive point-of-view (i.e., the rate at which the other team makes it to the line), the Warriors are dead-last again! Their opponents have amassed a FT/FGA ratio of 0.303. Golden State is fouling early, late, and often. Combine rapid-fire fouling with a low number of attempts for yourself and you have a recipe for losing.

Defensive FT/FGA

How does this add up? The end result is that the Warriors are taking, on average, 10.5 fewer attempts per game than their opponents, and as a result, they are scoring 9.8 fewer free throw points per game. It should be noted that Golden State scores 101.4 total points per game and gives up 107.0, so eliminating this free throw discrepancy would cover that margin and then some.

Monday, December 6, 2010

The Lopez Twins Don't Get Defensive Rebounds

The stats:

Brook Lopez 35.6 minutes, 3.8 def. rebs., DRB% 12.4
Robin Lopez 17.8 minutes, 2.3 def. rebs., DRB% 15.4
Kevin Love 34.0 minutes, 11.2 def. rebs., DRB% 35.0

In the 2010-2011 season, Kevin Love has a defensive rebounding rate of 35.0%. This statistic means that when he is on the floor and the opposing team shoots and misses, Love is the player (from either team) who rebounds that miss 35% of the time. In comparison, Robin and Brook Lopez have defensive rebounding rates of 15.4% and 12.4%, respectively. That's right -- Love has a better rebounding rate than the Lopez twins combined. Using rebounding rates negates the impact of playing time; however, Love has more defensive rebounds per game than both Brook and Robin combined -- 10.6 against 3.8 and 2.3 -- and that's with Brook playing more minutes per game than Love.

What is most disappointing is how Brook's numbers have dropped from his rookie season (21.2 DRB% as a rookie). I know that he has Humphries helping him out now, but still. Robin has no help whatsoever -- the Suns are last in the league in DRB% as a team.

I know this is going to shock you, but Kevin Love's UCLA team went 3-0 versus Stanford during his year in college. Even if we made it one-on-two, it doesn't quite seem like a fair fight. Maybe we could throw in Jarron and Jason Collins to help the Lopezes out?


If you want to see lots of pictures of a pregnant J-Lo, try Googling the phrase "Lopez Twins".

Saturday, December 4, 2010

Using Manu Ginobili Off the Ball

The Spurs staged another ambitious comeback over the Timberwolves Friday night following Greg Popovich's ejection. They held the Minnesota to 15 points in the fourth quarter with solid defensive play, and they took advantage of the young T-Wolves defenders on the other end. In this sequence, they set up Manu Ginobili for an off-ball screen. But instead they used him brilliantly as a decoy.

Here is the initial alignment: Ginobili at the top of the 3-point line, Richard Jefferson at the left elbow, and Duncan at the right elbow. Parker and Hill spread out the defense by occupying the corners. Ginobili gets the ball and passes to Duncan.

Corey Brewer is guarding Ginobili and Jefferson comes over to set an off-the-ball screen, with Ginobili headed to his natural direction -- the left hand. Love is guarding Duncan, who has possession of the ball, and Beasley is guarding Jefferson. Brewer has his eyes fixed on Duncan and cannot see the screen coming from Jefferson.

Beasley can see that Brewer is not going to recover in time to do anything with Ginobili and with the threat of Duncan feeding Manu the ball, Beasley heads in that direction. But the exquisite design has left Brewer behind Jefferson, who heads straight to the basket.

Duncan drops the ball over Kevin Love to Jefferson who goes right down the middle of the lane for the dunk. George Hill cuts across the baseline trailed by Wesley Johnson, who doesn't react in time to even get anywhere near the play.

This last pic is staggering. How can an NBA defense be that far away from a ballhandler standing smackdab in the middle of the lane on his way to the hoop? Good luck, Kurt. You'll need it with this group.

Friday, November 26, 2010

Quick Post: Sporcle Quiz

My all-time favorite Sporcle quiz: Pro Teams of the 60s . Love the ABA teams. (Hint: One of them is in the name of this blog!) I can't seem to score perfectly, no matter how I often I try it. If you get a good score, share it with us.

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Spurs Notes: Writing a Premature Epitaph for Duncan / Tony Parker - Eva Longoria

Update 11/17: There is a new report today from SI.com that Tony Parker and Eva Longoria are divorcing. After a day yesterday where rumors abounded that they were filing for a divorce in Texas, there is confirmation that she did, in fact, petition for a divorce and the reinstatement of her pre-marriage name in California today.
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David Robinson is the all-time Spurs leading scorer with 20,790 points. Close behind and creeping ever closer is Tim Duncan, who currently sits at 20,762. (To be fair, Duncan has 3914 playoff points to Robinson's 2221, plus three more rings, so while he really already has more points, but that's not how the records are kept.) In pursuit of the regular-season Spurs points title, Duncan registered the following three boxscores:

11/10 vs. Clippers: 6 points, 3/7 FG, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks
11/12 vs. Sixers: 7 points, 2/9 FG, 3/3 FT
11/14 at Thunder: 6 points, 2/7 FG, 4 rebounds 3 blocks

Not exactly rolling along like gangbusters, eh? Those look more like Dampier numbers than Duncan numbers. But consider the following mitigating factors here before we send the greatest power forward in NBA history out to pasture:

1) Duncan had the flu and Popovich limited his playing time to an average of 23 minutes in the three games. While the shooting numbers and rebounding totals weren't great, Duncan's plus/minus ratings for the three games were +15, +28, and +5. And that leads to...

2) The Spurs won all three games. Do you think that Popovich and Duncan care about anything else but cranking out the W's? If they win, they're happy -- hence the nickname 'Big Fundamental'.

3) It's okay to defer to the guards. In the first three quarters of the game against the Sixers, the Spurs starting backcourt of Parker and Ginobili outscored the Philly tandem of Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner by a margin of 42-2. Parker and Ginobili shot 16-of-23 while Holiday and Turner went 1-of-12 from the field. When things are going that well, Duncan is wise to defer to the hot hands of his teammates.

Don't count out the Duncan and the Spurs yet. Adding another year to Duncan's resume doesn't make him any scarier to his playoff opponents. But there are so many other factors that will make the Spurs dangerous this year: extra time in the Spurs' system for Jefferson, the health of Parker and Ginobili, added playing experience for youngsters George Hill and DeJuan Blair, and the acquisition of pivot-man Tiago Splitter. The Spurs could still be the most dangerous threat to the Lakers in the Western Conference.

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And while we're on the topic of the Spurs, TMZ is reporting that Tony Parker and Eva Longoria are divorcing. While those rumors swirl, their representatives are making vigorous denials. Either way, I get to include one of my favorite photo sequences of all-time: Parker, Longoria, and soccer player Thierry Henry at a US/France exhibition game.

Aaah. Those crazy Frenchmen. (I can relate. Despite the tile of the blog, my heritage is French/Portuguese.) I don't think Thierry was looking for his car keys.

Monday, November 15, 2010

Monday Notes -- Team Statistics

Ten games (or so) into the season and there are some telling gems in the "team statistics" department. Let's take a look at some of the winners and losers in key departments. Some tell stories you probably already know; others may reveal the unexpected.

Assists: Here is one stat that is probably not a surprise if you seen some of their early-season games. The Celtics smooth offense leads the league with 268 assists, while the discombobulated Thunder attack is struggling with a league-low 146. Rotation guys Serge Ibaka, Nenad Krstic, and Jeff Green have combined for a total of 10 assists this season. Way to make the extra pass, fellas.
Opponent's FG percentage: Three best: Dallas, New Orleans, Milwaukee. No surprises there. Dallas started well last year, but will sustain it this year by adding Chandler and Butler and subtracting Dampier. Three worst: Washington, Toronto, Sacramento. Washington has gotten excellent shot-blocking so far from Javale McGee and a suprising Yi Jianlian, but they are woeful rebounders and they get pushed around inside for easy buckets.
Opponent's 3-pt. FG percentage: Another bad mark for the OKC Thunder -- they are letting opponents hit 43.4% of their shots from deep. As Kobe said recently, you can't "put guys in the gym by themselves." The Thunder are giving opposing shooters way too much space. On the other end of the spectrum, the Hornets have been magnificent, allowing only 28.2% of their opponents shots. The league leaders in recent years have been in the 31%-34% range, so perhaps we can expect some regression to the mean in this department. Or maybe we can expect more of the same: New Orleans is second in the league (behind Dwight Howard and the Magic,) allowing opponents only 80 offensive rebounds this season -- depriving them of the golden second-chance looks that often lead to wide-open threes.
Steals: Want to begrudge Mike Conley and his $40 million contract? His league-leading 30 steals have paced the Grizzlies to a high mark of 113 steals. The league average is 72. The Nets scrape bottom here with only 39. Maybe we should tell them that it is good to have possession of the ball?
FT percentage: Here's a head scratcher -- for all the trouble that the Thunder have had this season, they are hitting 87% of their free throws this season. What makes this stat all the more remarkable? Their top-8 rotation guys are 23 years old, on average. It's rare to see such a young bunch with such sweet strokes. On the other hand, for obvious reasons, Orlando is hitting 65.1% of their free throws. More to come in a second.
Opponent's FT percentage: Okay, this one is a bit of a farce. Nobody is playing good FT defense. The worst: Orlando's opposition has made 81% of their free throws. The best: New Jersey's has made 70.1%. What do we learn here? 1) Orlando doesn't get the benefit of playing against Orlando (and Dwight Howard). 2) New Jersey is 3-6 despite being rather lucky.

Saturday, November 13, 2010

Buffalo Braves In the News

Okay, okay, the Buffalo Braves aren't really in the news. But they did come up a couple of times over the last week and, given the sorry state of the Bills, if one fan from Buffalo smiles in nostalgic reminiscence, then it was worth the mention.

In a glorious display of fiery-hot shooting, the Indiana Pacers scored 54 points in the third quarter of their victory over the Nuggets on Tuesday night. In one dizzying stretch, the Pacers had consecutive possessions where Mike Dunleavy

Was fouled on three-pointer and made 2/3 free throws
Made a 27-foot three point jumper
Made a 26-foot three point jumper
Was fouled on three-pointer and made all three free throws
Made a 27-foot three point jumper

and he finished the quarter with 24 points. In case you were wondering (and really, if you follow the NBA, you really shouldn't have to wonder), J.R. Smith was the defender on those five plays. Well done, J.R., well done.

54 points sounds like an awful lot for one quarter. But they broke no records for points in a quarter, and not just because Josh McRoberts chose to break out his ugly jumper in the final seconds of the quarter to turn 20/20 FG shooting into 20/21. The actual record for points in a quarter is held by ... the Buffalo Braves. On October 20, 1972, in a game with the Celtics, the Braves scored 58 in the final 12 minutes. And lost. Let me say that again: they outscored the opposition 58-23 in the fourth quarter and lost. Here's a clip of the New York Times boxscore for the game (which was positioned just to the right of a feature article on an old, odd variation of tennis: court tennis.)

Fun little boxscore, eh? Did Don Nelson shoot 2-2 or 2-17. Who knows?

The late Randy Smith, who passed away not too long ago, scored 23 of his 29 points in the final frame. And keep in mind that unlike the Pacers, the Braves managed to put up 58 points without the benefit of the three-point shot!

The Braves, who came into the league in 1970 along with Portland and Cleveland, came to my attention a second time this week when Bill Simmons posted this pic to his Twitter account of him as a youngster, eyeballing John Havlicek on crutches during the 1976

playoff series between Boston and Buffalo. After defeating Philadelphia in the first round, they split the first four games with Boston before losing in 6 games to the eventual champs. Following that defeat, things went sourly for the franchise. Coach Jack

I couldn't resist. Posting about Havlicek made me want to show off my Wordle creation -- based upon Celtics scoring (idea thanks to Hoopism). As their all-time leading scorer, Havlicek figures most prominently.

Ramsay would leave for Portland and McAdoo would leave halfway through the following season. Attendance suffered and David Stern (then an NBA lawyer) mediated a deal where Braves owner John Y. Brown swapped franchises with Irv Levin, who owned the Celtics. Why would the Celtics owner want the Braves instead? Levin wanted to move his team to California; the swap enabled him to get his wish -- the Braves then left to become the San Diego Clippers in 1978*. Three years later, the Clippers fans would get this news and the rest is (the-worst-team-in-major-US-professional-sports) history.

The struggling San Diego Clippers have been sold to Donald T. Sterling,

a Los Angeles lawyer who said today that he was ''prepared to pay

whatever it costs'' to make the team a winner. Sterling said the

franchise would remain in San Diego and that he planned to live

here and practice law here and in Los Angeles. ''We're not that far

away,'' Sterling said. ''We can be a winner in a year.''

(New York Times, May 5, 1981)

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*If Levin had taken the Celtics, we might have the Celtics and Lakers sharing the same state, or even the Staples Center!

Friday, November 12, 2010

Classic Tweet! Give me your best line to the following...

Mary Schmitt Boyer, who replaced Brian Windhorst as the tweeter for the Cleveland Plain-Dealer's NBA Twitter account, gave an unintentionally hilarious tweet on Andy Varejao today.

This quote is so good -- I am really going to need your best 1-line response. So what's your best line, people?

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Yao and Yi in Chinatown for 400 Million

Tonight at the Verizon Center, in the heart of DC's Chinatown, Yao and Yi faceoff for the first time in the nation's capital. According to Wizards owner Ted Leonsis, 400 million basketball fans worldwide will watch the game, and yet it still won't be a sellout.*

Some thoughts on the game:

For what it's worth, Yi has looked fantastic this season defending the pick-and-roll. When his man sets the screen, Yi gives an excellent show -- very similar to what you'd see from Kevin Garnett. I know this sounds ludicrous, but until the Wiz make frequent national TV appearances, please trust me. Playing the FIBA tournament and being the focal point of the Chinese team helped Yi immensely.
Formally, it's 'Asian Heritage Night' at the Verizon Center. Features include a halftime Lion Dance, a postgame meet-and-greet with Yi, and a post-game free throw on the court.
Here is the full statement from Ted Leonsis on his blog: http://www.tedstake.com/2010/11/10/effort-matters/ Magic Johnson is scheduled to speak to the Wiz tonight. Now, here's one from the "stuff I made up" department. Since Magic was rumored to sell his small stake in the Lakers with the hope of getting a larger one with a new NBA team, might he be speaking to Ted about getting a share in the team? The Pistons, currently for sale, from his home state Michigan were the obvious object of his desire, but Ted just took over ownership and things are still in flux, so I wouldn't say that it's a totally ridiculous thought.
From the Wizards Game Notes (http://www.nba.com/wizards/news/preview_111010.html), Wiz forward Trevor Booker and Rockets forward Jordan Hill are cousins. In a frontcourt full of thin guys getting pushed around (all of whom have other, more positive aspects to their skillsets), it's hard to believe a winless team can't find a role for a widebody like Booker.

*(Aaah, the perils of losing for a zillion straight years. On the flip side, tickets are available, and I live in the DC Metro area -- if you stretch the definition a bit -- so I am very tempted to take the plunge and haul into the city tonight.)

Buried Leads -- Jazz/Heat

Last night's Utah-Miami game was one for The Ages. You just can't say enough about Millsap's huge 46-point game, capped by three desperation three-pointers in the last minute. (And Deron Williams had one, too!) But this game was a masterpiece, with more story-lines than an entire season of Timberwolves basketball. (Sorry, Minnesota. Your team is boring.)

Watch this link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0eTiC-jjnU. Unbelievably, it was Dwyane Wade's third-best dunk of the night, with the other two coming much later in the game. The other two also made NBATV's highlight clip (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LZWqhCFGVA) of the game. For the first one, late in the fourth quarter, Wade retreated to the corner and waited patiently. When Ronnie Price turned to watch the ball, Wade cleverly tiptoed around him, cut to the hoop, and LeBron made a nice pass to find him open for a huge dunk. Then in overtime, Wade gashed through the middle of the lane and soared in for a supernatural, video-game-like jam. Wade didn't deserve to lose after such a heroic effort, but he did miss a clutch free throw at the end of regulation.
Check out the two clips above -- a tale of two halves. With the big Heat lead, some Miami fans evidently thought it was safe to sneak out early and check out South Beach. They missed an epic finish.
Millsap deserves every bit of praise that he gets for this game. He was a phenomenal force. But on the final play of the game, the Jazz received Lady Luck's most sincere blessings. If the last-second C.J. Miles heave is more accurate, it hits the top of the rim and time runs out before Millsap can get his putback. Rebounding balls that hit the underside of the rim is a crapshoot under the best of circumstances, and here the Jazz were fortunate that it fell right in their laps before time ran out.
The Jazz were down by 22 points with seconds remaining in the first half. Not only did they came back, but they did so quickly -- they were back in the lead halfway through the 4th quarter. When the Heat needed a final push through the 4th quarter, LeBron slid into the point guard position and Carlos Arroyo was out. The crunch time lineup for the heat was LeBron, Wade, Haslem, Bosh, and James Jones. LeBron did a nice job passing the ball, with 14 assists, but he looked lost without the ball in his hands. He also shot 5-18.
The three losses for the Heat this season came against the Celtics, the Hornets, and the Jazz -- good teams with elite point guards Rondo, Chris Paul, and Deron Williams.
Al Jefferson was buried in this game. Kyrylo Fesenko got all the key minutes for the Jazz at the center position, except for the last Jazz possession in OT. Fesenko moved his feet on defense, played physically, used his fouls, and showed a nice touch near the basket. On that last Jazz possession, in a tie game, Fesenko was taken out for a better offensive player and a better FT shooter. But even then, Sloan went to Francisco Elson instead of Jefferson. If you want to know why Jefferson rode the pine, check out Wade's first dunk above and look off-the-ball at Jefferson. That's not the way to gain Jerry's favor. Jefferson also shot 1-7 on FG for the game. If Al can't get minutes now, how is he going to get playing time when Okur is back? To Jefferson's credit, he was on the bench cheering mightily for his teammates during their comeback.
Speaking of Fesenko, when the Jazz were desperately trading three-pointers for free throws, why were the Heat covering Fesenko (and everyone else in two-point range) like legitimate threats to score. The Jazz were down by 8 points with 30 seconds remaining and had to shoot three-pointers. Look how open Millsap is. (And shoot they did. They scored 14 points in 28 seconds, with 11 of those on Millsap's three three-pointers and the final putback.)
LeBron collected his first offensive rebound of the season in the third quarter. Congratulations, I knew you could do it, Bron-Bron.