Monday, January 3, 2011

The Blatche-Lewis Project


When the Washington Wizards traded away Gilbert Arenas a couple of weeks ago, I speculated that the Blatche-Lewis combo would be an unmitigated defensive disaster for the team.  I hypothesized that the two players were similar in many unflattering aspects: too many jumpshots, slender physique, overall inactivity, and passive defense; and as a result, the team would suffer, especially in those instances when they were paired together on the floor.  To test out the theory, I am keeping tabs on their shared court time.  Here is a summary of the results when the two have been paired on the floor together since Lewis' first game.


Paired  +/- Rating
Minutes Played Together
Margin of W/L
vs.CHI
-8
11
-7
@ SAS
N/A
N/A
-14
@ HOU
-13
33
-7
vs. IND
+19
24
+14
@ IND
-11
25
-9
vs. NOH
-22
31
-11

  • Home vs.CHI:  Both players used at the 4-spot.  Blatche and Lewis subbed for each other during game frequently.  However, they were occasionally used together:  11 minutes, +/- rating of -8.
  • Road @ SAS:  Blatche suspended for fighting at club with Javale McGee.  Outstanding.
  • Road @ HOU: Lewis played a season-high 43 minutes, including a starting role at the 3-spot.  They played over 33 minutes together with a +/- rating of -13 when they were on the court together, including an epic fourth quarter collapse.
  • Home vs. IND:  Lewis and Blatche have the best individual +/- ratings on the team at +19 and + 15, respectively.
  • Road @ IND:  Individually, Lewis is a +1, while Blatche shoots 4/16 FG and is a -22.
  • Home vs. NOH:  Of the 32 two-man combos used by the Wizards, Blatche/Lewis ranked dead last at -22.

    Summary:  The pair worked well in one of the five games.  Note that in the other four games, the +/- rating was worse than the margin of defeat, meaning that the team was a net positive when the two players were not together on the court at the same time.  Before the trade, Flip complained that the Wall-Hinrich-Arenas trio featured their best players all at the same position, but after the trade, the Wiz have two players in the frontcourt whose strengths and shortcomings are essentially duplicates. Other teams are taking advantage of those weaknesses.  The Wizards have lots of issues beyond this one, but so far, I believe that my original assumption has been proven correct.
    _____________

    Addendum (hat tip to DC Sports Bog):  In a shocking turn of events (cue the mock horror music) from the night before the New Orleans game, Andray was out on the town on New Year's Eve dousing himself with champagne:  http://bit.ly/fMEoID



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