Milwaukee Bucks Game Preview: Feeling the Heat

Tonight the Bucks try to shake off the disappointment of blowing an 11-point fourth-quarter lead in Charlotte. To do it, they will have to knock off the defending champion Heat in Miami. The Heat have the second-best record in the Eastern Conference at 8-3, and the Bucks surprisingly sit tied with Brooklyn for the third-best mark, 6-3. Miami, however, has done it while plowing through one of the more difficult parts of their schedule -- including a six-game road trip that took them through the West. They return to Miami for their first home game in two weeks tonight; they are 5-0 at home on the sesaon.

Projected starters

Miami:  Mario Chalmers, Dwyane Wade, Shane Battier, LeBron James, Chris Bosh
Milwaukee: Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, Tobias Harris, Ersan Ilyasova(?), Samuel Dalembert

Dwyane Wade is expected to return tonight after missing three games with a sprained left foot.

Some numbers

The Heat now start Chris Bosh at center and LeBron at power forward. They also have stockpiled a cadre of older three-point shooters for their rotation: Mike Miller, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis, and Shane Battier.

The result of throwing in so much offense at the expense of age and size has the Heat giving up a rather sour 107.2 points per 100 possessions, despite the fact that they trump that by scoring an astounding 112.1 points per 100 possessions on offense.

And speaking of going small... Is tonight the night that Ersan Ilyasova gets dropped from the starting lineup?  Coach Scott Skiles needed a power forward to check Byron Mullens in the fourth quarter of a game in Charlotte.  He picked rookie John Henson over Ersan.

Ilyasova has never been one to guard the quicker power forwards (such as in the pivotal Knick game last season when they shifted Carmelo to PF).  Would it work to switch Ersan to center for a night to have him guard Chris Bosh?  It will be extremely interesting to see if and how Skiles shuffles his lineup and rotations tonight.  (Okay, maybe not that interesting, but I'm a junkie.)

						Offense Four Factors				Defense Four Factors
Rk	Team	MOV	ORtg	DRtg	Pace	eFG%	TOV%	ORB%	FT/FGA	eFG%	TOV%	DRB%	FT/FGA
5	Miami Heat	4.45	112.1	107.2	92.4	.552	13.6	21.9	.213	.497	14.0	72.0	.207
12	Milwaukee Bucks	2.78	104.6	101.7	96.2	.495	13.4	25.4	.173	.494	15.9	77.5	.245
	League Average	0.00	103.8	103.8	92.2	.484	14.1	27.0	.211	.484	14.1	73.0	.211

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/21/2012.

The Bucks have been getting hammered in free throw differential.  They now sport the fourth-worst defensive FT/FGA ratio ahead of only bottom feeders Washington, Toronto, and Sacramento.  They can't afford to give up as many free throws as they do (unless they play better overall defense and bring down eFG% instead), while relying on guards who haven't gotten to the line as consistently as they should.

They also, quite frankly, need a little more love from the refs.  Can't see that happening tonight against one of the league's golden boys.