After watching far too many Milwaukee Bucks games this season (in my gig as writer for We're Bucked), I came to a conclusion that I was sure had to be true: the Bucks shot better from the field without Brandon Jennings on the court. Unlike the league's top point guards, who strove to set up their teammates with high-quality shots, Jennings ran a ragged half-court offense that too often resulted in a forced isolation play by John Salmons with time running out on the shot clock. I wanted to see the numbers on the Bucks field goal percentage with and without Jennings on the court to see if this hypothesis was true.
Eventually, I settled on using effective field goal percentage (eFG%), which takes into account the value of quality three-point FG attempts, and limited the data set to starting point guards who spent the entirety of the season leading their teams. The data below were obtained using the newly revamped Statscube feature of NBA.com.
As you can see, the data confirm my suspicion; the Bucks shot 2% better with Jennings off the court and worse, his 45.8% mark is the lowest number on the table (tied with Hornets' sans Chris Paul and we've all seen that dysfunctional, Jarrett Jack-led disaster firsthand versus the Lakers this week).
But there are some other telling numbers here as well. Not surprisingly, Nash and Rondo top the list in both on-court eFG% and in the on-court/off-court differential. They fulfill the role of table setter for their teams and their teams functioned best with them on the court. The next three highest eFG% numbers belonged to Jameer Nelson, Jason Kidd, and Tony Parker. Interestingly, Dallas and San Antonio performed at a higher level without Kidd and Parker, but that probably says more about George Hill and J.J. Barea than it does about the starters.
Most surprisingly, the Thunder shoot well with Russell Westbrook in the game, but the team with the largest discrepancy between their backup and starting point guards was Oklahoma City. Can it possibly be that Westbrook's disjointed, über-athletic style isn't helping his teammates?
On the other hand, there are all kinds of problems associated with the data, such as each team's talent level for both its starters and its bench, differing types of playing time, rotations, etc… It is impossible to control for those types of factors. The data also lacks any accountability for defense, rebounding, and overall efficiency in other areas. To partially compensate for these deficiencies and get a fuller picture, we will take a look at one more data set to pick out the frauds off the first list. (We're looking at you, D.J. Augustin.) Will Russell Westbrook be spared if we look at each teams efficiency with and without their starting point guard?
Below is a list of each teams net efficiency with and without their starting point guard. In other words, the on-court net efficiency is the offensive efficiency minus the defensive efficiency with the starting point guard on the floor.** Off-court net efficiency is the corresponding data without the starter. Net net efficiency is the difference of the two. (Isn't that a fun title?) Both tables below contain the same data, but they are sorted in two ways.
When sorted by the on/off-court differential, Paul and Nash are the clear winners. Mike Conley, Andre Miller, and Kyle Lowry also fare well. With the exception of Jason Kidd, the one common them among the cellar dwellers -- Jennings, Augustin, Wall, Collison, and Westbrook -- is youth.
If we only look at the on-court data, then the results look a bit different. The Bulls function at a remarkably high level with both Derrick Rose and backup C.J. Watson. The top portion of this list is dominated by guards from playoff teams. Out of the top 12 spots, only Kyle Lowry and Steve Nash missed the postseason (and their teams' records would have qualify had they been in the Eastern Conference). In my opinion, the bottom of the list (Calderon, Udrih, Ridnour, and Augustin) contains some of the weaker defenders. And if you're a Wizard fan, seeing your prized, #1 overall draft pick rookie at the bottom of the list has to raise concerns, especially seeing that the remainder of the Washington roster is filled with question marks and spare parts. Good luck, Ernie Grunfeld.
_______________________________________
** Offensive efficiency is a team's points per 100 possessions; defensive efficiency is its points yielded per 100 opponent possessions.
No comments:
Post a Comment